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Global COVID-19 "after-party"

Image credit: https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ts/news/world/europe/2020/08/01/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-coronavirus-restrictions.html

Povilas S
Povilas S Dec 20, 2020

General comments

Shubhankar Kulkarni
Shubhankar Kulkarni15 days ago
Juran's last question is what I want to focus on. How do you determine the "end" of the pandemic? It is a gradual process, very slow, and has a number of ups and downs. You cannot assign an arbitrary number and say, for example, that when a country has fewer than 10 per 1 million people actively infected with the coronavirus, the country is out of the pandemic. If you look at other diseases - let us consider poliomyelitis as an example - you still see cases in some parts of the world. (https://www.dw.com/en/polio-eradicated-in-all-but-two-countries/a-18809883) Although Germany saw its last case in 1990, global travel has led to some more cases afterward. (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/Diagnostics/NatRefCentresConsultantLab/POLIO/Polio_node.html#:~:text=In%20Germany%20the%20last%20indigenous,VAPP%20cases%20by%20live%20vaccines). Moreover, new strains emerge creating the need for updated anti-disease measures. In that sense, a disease takes decades to be eradicated. Although the severity of the symptoms might decrease with decreased virulence of the virus and increased immunity against it, coronavirus is here to stay for a long time - long enough for us to be so accustomed to it that having a party, probably, won't make any sense then.
Povilas S
Povilas S11 days ago
Shubhankar Kulkarni Sure, but you are talking more from a radical point of view. If managed well, epidemics usually don't last more than a few years. The disease itself might stay of course, but there's not going to be massive outbursts, that's where we're heading (hopefully). There will be a point when a clear relief will be felt on a large scale. A reference point to consider is when herd immunity is formed. In the case of COVID-19 that takes about 60% of the population to get immunity either naturally or artificially to stop the infection from spreading. That's what vaccination should do. New strains and quick mutations might be a real threat, but so far the existing vaccines appear to work against the new strain too. Time will show.
Juran K.a month ago
As the people reading this would probably be, I am also deeply divided on this topic.
On the one hand, the celebration is a nice way to psychologically move forward, out of this dark series of events and restore the levels of optimism for further actions.
But from the other perspective, would it be rational to spend money on "partying", while there is not enough money to ensure free vaccination or even diagnostic tests? Who would organize such an event and take the responsibility for possible new epidemic hotspots and victims, after the 2020 experience?

PS Will we ever get out of the this pandemia?