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Can you come up with a formula for calculating the value of an idea?

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Darko Savic
Darko Savic May 08, 2022
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Necessity

Is the problem still unsolved?

Conciseness

Is it concisely described?

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Can you come up with a realistic formula or principles by which we can calculate the value of an idea?
Derek Sivers once came up with such a formula that rates an idea on a scale between 1-6 where the maximum value could be $20. I think we should be able to come up with a better way of assigning value to an idea.
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Factors that play a role in determining the value of an idea

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Darko Savic
Darko Savic May 08, 2022
We could consider the following factors:
  • Originality; Is it drastically different from similar solutions?
  • Necessity; Is it targeting an unsolved problem?
  • Audience; How many people would appreciate the underlying problem being solved for them?
  • Feasibility; Is the idea feasible?
  • Conciseness; Is it described concisely or is the noise to signal ratio too high (difficult to read)?
  • What else could play a role?
Each of the above could be rated between 1-10. Each has a different weight in the total score/value of an idea. For example:
  • Necessity: $10 if it targets an unsolved problem. $5 if the problem is poorly solved with existing solutions. $1 if the problem already has good solutions out there.
  • Audience: $100 if it helps a billion people, $1 if it helps one person.
  • Conciseness: $5 if it's concisely described, -$5 if it wastes people's time.
  • Feasibility: $1 if the idea is feasible, $0 if it's not.
  • Originality: $2 if the idea is original, $0 if it's not.
Then the formula could look something like this:
(necessity + audience) * feasibility * originality + conciseness
So a great, unique idea that solves an unsolved problem for 300 Million people and is concisely descrbed would be worth:
(10 + 30) * 1 * 2 + 5 = $85
In contrast, a non-original idea that solves a problem that's already well solved with other solutions, is written so that it's a waste of time to read would be:
(1 + 30) * 0 * 0 - 5 = -$5
Woever wrote it, theoretically owes you 5 bucks for wasting your time on reading the idea. It should have been a "pay per read" marketing campaign instead.
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Shireesh Apte
Shireesh Apte2 days ago
Assuming that the idea can be made into a product that can be sold - calculate the ratio of the custormer acquisition cost to the revenue. The larger the ratio, the lesser the idea is worth because you have to 'educate' the people into buying the product. The lesser the ratio, the more the idea is worth because the product is so good at solving a problem that there is essentially no need to 'educate' the customer. This method will provide real metrics to an idea's worth.
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Shubhankar Kulkarni
Shubhankar Kulkarni14 days ago
Great formula! The audience score is a bit tricky. If $1 corresponds to one person and $100 to 1 billion, then the curve should be exponential and not linear. To make the formula more accurate, the "audience" score needs to have its own formula. Using the input data as $1 corresponds to 1 person and $100 to 1 billion, the formula would be y = 1 * (e ^ (0.000000005 * x), where y is the amount in $ and x is the number of people or audience. In that case, 300 million may not equate to $30, but much less, not even $10.
Alternatively, if you want the formula to be linear and still want 1$ corresponding to 1 person and 100$ corresponding to 1 billion, what you can do is split the formula for the "audience" score into two parts using a threshold. The first part could be non-linear and arbitrary, and the second could be linear. If there are zero people benefitting from the idea, the "audience" score is zero. If there is one person benefitting from the idea, the "audience score" will be $1. If there are at least 2 and at the max 1000 people benefitting from the idea, the "audience score" will be $1.2. If there are at least 1001 people and at the max 1 million people benefitting from the idea, the "audience score" will be $1.4. For 1 million to 10 million people, the "audience score" will be $1.6. For up to 20 million people, the score will be $2. After that, you could use a linear equation and every 10 million people who benefitted could increase the score by $1.
This will be mentioned on the idea evaluation page to maintain transparency.
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Goran Radanovic
Goran Radanovic15 days ago
I agree with the top part. The second part should not be applicable.
An ideator should never pay anyone for sharing his/her knowledge/idea. It dissuades them from sharing certain ideas they think are bad that may be good and makes them develop a mental filter, which everything is processed through because of financial accountability.
Let ideators share their ideas, regardless of how good or bad. Don't stifle their thinking by penalising them. The more freedom they have, the more likely they are to come up with something brilliant, even after proposing a hundred bad ideas.
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new factors to your model

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Mikhail Korsanov
Mikhail Korsanov May 08, 2022
Darko, I would add:
  • pleasure from reading the idea: how many people experience what level of positive feelings, reading the idea description N*P, where N and P ={1...10}
  • evaluated economical effect
  • absence of negative side effects for the users and others
  • how well it is elaborated in details,
  • obstacles foreseen or not
  • obstacles overcome or only foreseen
  • how easy it is for understanding
  • how fast it is for implementation
  • implementation costs per piece
  • start-up implementation costs
  • if it is nature-friendly
  • if it is cruelty free/animals friendly
  • if it is otherwise ethical
  • if it requires rare resources, which makes supply risky
For each factor I would set a factor weight reflecting its significance for the total value.
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Shubhankar Kulkarni
Shubhankar Kulkarni14 days ago
Great! Definitely factor in its impact on nature.
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Value of an idea depends not only from the idea

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Mikhail Korsanov
Mikhail Korsanov May 08, 2022
You cannot set a specific value for each idea, because its value depends on context, not only the very idea itself. A negligently small idea may be of an extremely high value in some circumstances, and vice versa: a great idea how to change the world may have no value in a society that is not ready for this change. Do you mean some statistically average value recognized by society to set a price?
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Darko Savic
Darko Savic16 days ago
I was thinking about something like this for example
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General comments

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Darko Savic
Darko Savic15 days ago
How do we objectively rate ideas in view of their potential impact on the future?
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