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Empirical Probability Indicator for Cryptocurrency and Stock Market Traders

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Samuel Bello
Samuel Bello Aug 01, 2021
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A lot of people, especially newbies, lose large sums of money on online trading platforms due to a lack of experience or not studying the charts enough. Sometimes they lose money because they employ poor risk management methods or have unrealistic expectations. This Signal is an attempt to reduce the effect of their inexperience by using empirical probability signals. It can also help to put experienced traders in check when they become biased due to their past experiences. The main difference between this method and existing trading bot strategies is that this would use the whole chart at once. It will also make inferences that are derived from waveforms that are not in the scales that the human mind will easily perceive. Empirical probability is the type of probability that is based on historical data. This form of probability assumes that events that have occurred before are likely to be repeated while events that have not happened before will have a very low chance of happening. This signal will use the whole chart of a commodity pair to generate probabilities for the traders. The signal is collated from every point on the graph so that nothing is missed. This should prove more reliable than signals that look different when you change the scale of the chart. For example, if the last Japanese candlestick on a scale where one candlestick covers four hours on the chart is red, the last candlestick could be green when the scale of the chart is changed to let two weeks be represented with one candlestick. This type of change in signal for the same point on a graph can confuse beginners. Even experienced traders usually try out different scales before deciding what to do. An empirical probability indicator would simply show the probability of a commodity's value going up or down by showing two arrows. A red arrow shows the probability of a commodity's value going down while a green arrow shows the probability of an increase in the commodity's value. The thickness of the arrows will express the likelihood of the commodity reaching that point on the arrow. A drawback of this type of indicator is that it will require a lot of memory and computational capacity.
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General comments

Shubhankar Kulkarni
Shubhankar Kulkarni3 years ago
Smart idea! I am surprised none of the currently available probability indicators use this method. Another feature the indicator could have is to record the investment period of the investor. Some investors invest for a short period (in hours to days) and some invest for years. If the indicator could differentially predict how commodities will behave in the short vs the long run, it could be more useful for the investor.
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